By Charles Cooper and Sarah Hamlett
Tomorrow, President Trump will
make his third address to Congress since being elected (he has previously made
one address to a Joint Session of Congress and one State of the Union address).
His
speech this year will likely follow the same framework of most State
of the Union addresses throughout history – a portion dedicated to highlighting
successes over the past year, a portion dedicated to new policies for the
coming year, and a portion dedicated to the broader theme of the administration
(in this case “Making America Great Again”).
Of course, it is never easy to
predict what a President will say when given the largest and most prominent
platform to speak to the nation, especially when it comes to President Trump
who has (better than others) leveraged these moments to solidify his core
messages. But a review of his past two addresses to Congress, and recent
developments on some of his ongoing priorities, provides a potential roadmap
for what he may say at this year’s address. Here are areas to watch for
tomorrow:
A
Focus on Immigration (and especially the border wall): A wall
along the southern border has been a priority of President Trump’s since
announcing his candidacy for President. His last two addresses to Congress
focused more on immigration
than any other issue and given the recent shutdown over border wall funding, it
is likely to dominate tomorrow’s State of the Union as well. In his 2017
address to Congress, President Trump announced that “we will soon begin the
construction of a great, great wall along our southern border” and in 2018 he highlighted
“building a wall” as one of four pillars of his
immigration plan. This year he
will likely renew his call to quickly fund a border wall as a key message of
his speech.
A Victory Lap on the Economy, Criminal
Justice Reform, and Opioid Legislation:
President Trump proudly highlighted strong economic trends in his last speech
before Congress. He associated a strong economy with several of his policies
and will likely do the same this year, especially around robust employment
data. In doing so, he will probably focus on the middle class and
may even renew his call from late last year for a new middle-class tax cut. He
will also likely highlight two bipartisan bills he signed into law this year that
are focused on criminal justice reform (The First Step Act) and
combatting opioid abuse (SUPPORT
For Patients and Communities Act).
An
Update on Trade: There are few policy shifts since the Obama
Administration more dramatic than President Trump’s focus on our trade relationships.
Last year, the President told Congress that “we expect trading relationships to
be fair and to be reciprocal and we will work to fix bad trade deals and
negotiate new ones.” He is likely to call on Congress to pass the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (the renegotiated NAFTA) and provide an update
around ongoing negotiations with China, especially given that the new tariffs
in place on products imported from China were not on the radar when he spoke
last to Congress, new tariff increases are expected in early March, and he will
be meeting with President Xi Jinping soon.
A
Call for Congress to Produce an Infrastructure Package: There
are few policy areas where Congress and the White House are aligned, but modernizing
our infrastructure is one of them (although how to pay for it
remains a point of contention). In 2017 the President said, “the time has come for a new program of national
rebuilding” and called on Congress to produce legislation with a $1 trillion
investment in infrastructure. The following year, he called on Congress to
produce legislation that generates a $1.5 trillion investment in
infrastructure, noting “I am asking both parties to come together to
give us the safe, fast, reliable, and modern infrastructure our economy needs
and our people deserve.” During his address this year, he will likely renew his
call for an infrastructure package that spurs additional investment.
A
Call to Reduce the Price of Prescription Drugs: With the
new House Democratic Majority, the President will likely return to the issue of
prescription
drug costs – a priority for the new majority and for his own
Administration. During last year’s State of the Union address, the President
said, “one of my greatest priorities is to
reduce the price of prescription drugs. In many other countries, these drugs
cost far less than what we pay in the United States. That is why I have
directed my Administration to make fixing the injustice of high drug prices one
of our top priorities. Prices will come down.” Democrats embraced the
concept and have listed the issue as a core agenda item for the 116th
Congress. He will likely provide an update on the work of the Administration
and potentially call on Congress to pass new policies around drug prices.
An Update on Foreign Policy Priorities: President Trump will likely provide an update on North Korea,
especially given the looming talks on the horizon. During last year’s State of
the Union, the President noted that “no regime has oppressed its own
citizens more totally or brutally than the cruel dictatorship in North Korea. North
Korea’s reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our
homeland.” The President has since opened a dialogue with North Korea in a
dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, which will likely occupy some time in
tomorrow’s address. He may also mention other timely foreign
policy and national security topics, including the battle against
ISIS, the recent elections in Venezuela, and troop withdrawals in Syria and
Afghanistan. It is also very likely he will highlight record spending on
national security and recent pay increases for the Armed Forces.
Without
question, this State of the Union address comes at an interesting time – just
after the longest shutdown
in history, weeks before federal funding is scheduled to expire again, a point
of significant transition in the Administration, a new majority in the House of
Representatives, and several issues developing now that were mere talking
points in President Trump’s past addresses to Congress. While these speeches
are, in part, aspirational policy goals, they also provide good insight into
the White House’s direction for the next year and policy areas where the
President may have shifted his priorities since last year.
