The 116th Congress has completed its first six
months, and their work has been an interesting mix of leadership transitions, intra-party
disagreements, Republican retirements, a remarkably inconsistent relationship
with the White House, lots of oversight, and some legislating (38 bills signed
into law).
By any measure, there have been major bipartisan victories, including
the John D. Dingell, Jr. Conservation, Management, and Recreation Act (the
first of its kind in over a decade) and the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
(effectively ending sequestration). Not surprisingly, partisanship remains high,
and the atmosphere at times seems more like the fights on a political campaign
than meaningful policy debates.
Looking ahead, this Congress will have a major impact on several
issues and will shape the policy around them. Regardless of whether these
issues are passed and signed into law during the remainder of the 116th Congress
(and some may be), I believe that the policies will be developed, vetted and
solidified this Congress. The issues to watch:
Consumer Privacy: While the discussions around
consumer data privacy technically began in the 115th Congress (as a
result of concerns around the technology industry), the bulk of the legislative
work will be a product of the 116th Congress. The House Energy and
Commerce Committee is likely to introduce legislation in the fall and the
Senate Commerce Committee is working on their own version - both hoping to do
so with bipartisan support. Multiple other leading policymakers in the tech
space are exploring their own bills as well, which could be molded into a
moving vehicle.
Consumer privacy is not only driven by support on Capitol
Hill, of course. The President has expressed a strong interest in the issue,
and policies in both California and Europe are creating more urgency for
policymakers to act.
Factors that will help push consumer
privacy along this Congress:
Surface Transportation: The existing surface
transportation bill (the FAST Act) expires on September 30, 2020. Despite the current
political climate working against legislation that requires new revenue and lacks
“earmarks” to fuel movement, there is a strong interest in developing and
moving reauthorization legislation this Congress.
The ongoing threat of antiquated transportation networks
isn’t new, but a dilapidated infrastructure and declining funds do not make a
good combination. Policymakers recognize this and have already started the
process of drafting legislation. The Senate Environment and Public Works
Committee passed a bipartisan reauthorization bill (American Transportation
Infrastructure Act) just before leaving for the August recess. The House
Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is working hard to develop their
own bill and have been aggressively holding hearings and meeting with
stakeholder groups to do just that.
Of course, without a revenue solution (which doesn’t
currently exist), legislation will never move, but the pieces are falling into
place.
Factors that will help push surface
transportation along this Congress:
Trade: For Congress, the trade policy space
has been frustrating as they stand on the outside of the ongoing tariff battle
between the White House and China (with a fourth round of tariffs on imports
from China expected on September 1, 2019). Despite a slew of hearings in the
House and Senate, the President has largely driven the trade debate.
That said, the U.S. - Mexico - Canada Agreement
(renegotiated NAFTA) requires Congressional approval and Congress has now taken
center stage in the effort to ratify the USMCA. While Republicans strongly
support the USMCA, this will require bipartisan support to get through the
House.
Democrats are actively engaged in discussing priorities and
concerns with the U.S. Trade Representative and the White House is expected to
send the legislation to the Congress in the fall.
Factors that will help push trade
policy along this Congress:
Public Lands / Outdoor Recreation: Congress
had a major bipartisan win earlier this year when bipartisan public lands
legislation (highlighted above) was signed into law. The bill, among other
things, reestablished public lands policy as bipartisan after several issues
divided Congress and related stakeholder groups. It also made historic gains
around policy issues that had not moved in years.
Despite all the “wins” that were included in the bill, there
are several issues that remain on the table from permit streamlining to funding
billions of dollars in maintenance backlog on public lands. These (and others)
are priorities for a wide cross section of Congress and the administration. Committees
in the House and Senate have also focused on these issues and there is
intertest in seeing additional public lands and recreation priorities move
through the legislative process.
Factors that will help push
public lands and recreation policy along this Congress:
Autonomous Vehicle: The 115th
Congress made great progress in AV legislation and certainly launched the first
meaningful debate on the issue in Congress. The House passed the Self-Drive Act
in committee and on the House floor without any opposition. The Senate came close
to passing their version of the bill, the AV Start Act, but ran out of time at
the end of the 115th Congress. Nonetheless, there was a tremendous
amount of time and energy spent moving the debate along, and that will
certainly be leveraged to get similar legislation across the finish line in the
116th Congress.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Senate
Commerce Committee are working together to kick start the process of developing
legislation around self-driving cars - a clear statement that they are serious
about getting a bill signed into law this Congress.
Of course, autonomous vehicle legislation has many
stakeholders - well beyond the AV companies that have a large interest in the
issue. While there is strong demonstrated support for legislation, it remains
complicated and will require significant effort to build off the progress of
the 115th Congress.
Factors that will help push autonomous
vehicle policy along this Congress:
Climate Change: I can only imagine the gasps
that adding climate change to a list of “moveable” issues in the 116th
Congress would bring in Washington, DC. After all, this is one of the most (if
not the most) partisan Congresses in history, and climate change is one of the
issues that has most clearly divided the two parties. On top of that, recent
efforts to advance major climate reforms (cap and trade, the Paris Agreement,
etc.) have done little to bring the parties together around a common solution.
However, policymakers on both sides of the aisle are
increasingly looking for ways to advance the climate change debate. Republicans
are coming to the table and offering potential solutions. Most recently, the
transportation reauthorization legislation (referenced above), drafted by
Republicans and Democrats, included an entire title on climate change with
billions of dollars of funding to reduce carbon emissions and counter climate
change. The House Bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus and the House Select
Committee on the Climate Crises are helping to elevate the issue.
While there could very well be some climate policy “wins”
this Congress, there won’t be comprehensive legislation signed into law. The
important take away is that the 116th Congress is helping to shape
the debate, bring well-positioned voices to the table from both sides of the
political aisle, and take small steps to include climate change provisions in
meaningful bipartisan bills.
Factors that will help push climate
change policy along this Congress:
